Effective Framework for Revenue Forecasting for Tax Authorities

Description

Introduction

Effective Framework for Revenue Forecasting for Tax Authorities  is a critical aspect of fiscal planning for governments at all levels, from local municipalities to national administrations.

Participants in this course will understand that tax revenue forecasting is a complex and multifaceted process that requires a combination of economic analysis, statistical modelling, and policy expertise. By developing accurate and reliable revenue forecasts, governments can better manage their finances, support economic growth, and meet the needs of their citizens.

Course Content

• Statistical Methods: Time series analysis and regression analysis are commonly used to analyse historical tax data and identify trends and patterns that inform revenue forecasts.
• Econometric Models: integrate economic variables such as GDP growth, inflation and unemployment rates with tax revenue data to develop more robust forecasts.
• Machine Learning: algorithms can analyse large datasets and identify complex relationships between variables, offering potential improvements in forecast accuracy.
• Expert Judgement: play a role in tax revenue forecasting, particularly when historical data may be limited or unreliable.

Learning Outcomes

• Solid grasp of fundamental taxation forecasting principles
• Develop skills in data analysis techniques, including data cleaning, manipulation and visualisation.
• Educate trainees on economic indicators, trends, and factors influencing tax revenue.
• Identify and assess risks that could affect tax revenue forecasts, such as changes in taxpayer behaviour, economic downturns, or policy uncertainties.
• Learn the importance of clear and concise communication in presenting tax revenue forecasts to policymakers, stakeholders and the public.